http://www.cioinsight.com/article2/0,3959,1309523,00.asp
Article suggesting that IT has become commoditized, making for a poor long-term employment picture. According to an ITA survey, some half-million jobs have been lost in the USA since the big boom busted, with little hope of most of them returning. Some draw comparisons with what happened to telephone operators when automated switches were installed.
The changing nature of the IT workforce means that the only skill with real growth potential is the "IT Plumber" -- the tradesman who comes in and repairs an automated system when it breaks down. Anyone who has paid for the services of a plumber in the recent past will appreciate how lucrative such a trade could be.
The continuing economic impact of offshore outsourcing means that USA IT workers will have to retrain or find other occupations -- some 2 million additional jobs can be outsourced in the next few years. The overall picture for software development is a transition from a "master craftsman" model to an "assembly line" model.
Additional references are provided at the end of this article.
Posted by jho at November 6, 2003 09:11 AM