Flow My Thoughts, The IT Professor Said

The Long Retreating Roar

http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/81/offshore.html

Another look at the pros and cons, ups and downs of offshoring, which has been addressed previously in this blog, at some length. Even so, a couple of qualities make this particular article worth a glance.

The first thing worth noting is that offshoring is not the same as a downturn in the business cycle -- jobs lost through offshoring are gone "and they ain't a-coming back". The human cost of this is considerable: we may experience some schadenfreude in contemplating how people who once earned 6-figure salaries now see McDonald's as a luxury treat, but we do so at our peril. There seems to be no natural stopping place for the offshoring phenomenon, and the potential corrosiveness it can exert on worker loyalty is something which really deserves more attention than it currently gets.

The second thing worth noting is how fundamentally dishonest most companies are about this issue, which this article particularly highlights. One can understand that offshoring is a PR disaster for those firms implementing it, but corporate convenience should not be the yardstick by which public debate is conducted in a democracy. By acting in such an evasive manner, corporations become part of the problem instead of the solution [and, worse, make defining the problem and therefore deriving solutions alike more difficult].

Some observers have cautioned against emotionalism over this issue, but in my heart of hearts, I wonder if perhaps it is time for us to get mad about it.

Will The Last Person Out...

http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/career/article.php/3331751

Gartner Research, whose prognostications may require the occasional sprinkle of salt, released a report suggesting that 25% of USA IT jobs will be offshored in the next 6 years. This does not mean a necessary net loss of jobs, because some of the jobs created in India, for example, will be new local growth, not a transfer.

Offshoring has gained great momentum, and looks like a no-brainer for business decisions. On the other hand, some observers note that small-to-medium business will have much greater difficulty offshoring, and if wage pressures are allowed to operate, perhaps not all such jobs will move offshore.

For a series of news articles and reports on the offshoring debate, check this site:

http://www.eweek.com/category2/0,1738,1543526,00.asp

The Surrounding Darkness Isn't A Tunnel

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/8221460.htm

With all the hand-wringing about offshoring, certainly mentioned previously herein, this article warns that we may be missing the real problem: a continued shortage of high-end high-tech workers. The thesis now being bandied about is that the IT industry has matured, so the wretched excess of the dot.com years no longer apply.

This is perceived as painful, but is in fact a distraction. The number of jobs involved is small in comparison to the USA economy, and the types of jobs being offshored represent the low-end of the IT spectrum [though this should not obscure the problems involved in taking away the 'rungs at the bottom of the career ladder']. Overconcern with these issues and neglect of continuing needs can prove counterproductive in the long run.

Through The Tunnel, Into The Light

http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/career/article.php/3326031

This blog has previously detected grounds for some optimism that the worst of the withering employment blight in IT has receded. The current indexed article adduces more evidence to suggest that even with offshoring, we are looking at an improved IT employment picture. This can have obvious knock-on effects for education.

The Light IS The End Of The Tunnel

http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/career/article.php/3309591

A growing body of observations suggests that the IT industry may be picking up some of the growth that was lost in the past three years. The indexed article indicates that technology salaries are up 2%, which is an improvement over the recent past, representing a sign engendering hope. The article also adduces evidence to show that improvements in the IT job market have not been entirely hollowed out by offshoring.

The top management titles are IT management and project management; systems developer and software engineer are the top non-management titles. Skills most in demand include include SAP, Peoplesoft, Unix, and C/C++. This may give some hints to continuing curriculum development in IT.

Revolution Sans Frontieres

http://hbswk.hbs.edu/pubitem.jhtml?id=3885&sid=-1&t=special_reports_cyber2004

In-depth coverage of a conference topic on the offshoring phenomenon, showing the range of alternatives against the factual basis of the phenomenon. It has become a multi-billion-dollar operation, with its own momentum. In fact, offshoring is just developing, and even as it becomes more extensive, so do the lessons which must be learned about it. Not only does offshoring bring quality at a reduced price, but it also enables the 24/7 operation on a worldwide basis.

The advantages of offshoring may simply be irrestable in both the short and long runs.

Out Of The Shadows

http://www.redherring.com/article.aspx?f=Articles/2004%2f02%2f24da8d70-0e71-4dd9-890c-05efc71f324d%2f24da8d70-0e71-4dd9-890c-05efc71f324d.xml&hed=Hidden%20tech

Absorbing article about the evolution of 'hidden tech' -- the fact that internetworking has improved to the point that the (sometimes vacuous) dream of de-urbanization for knowledge workers can be realized. While the result is a more humane way of life [with the not inconsiderable side effect of spreading the economic benefits of IT more widely], it has even more significance: because this development may be key to sustained economic recovery in the USA, and also because it is small, unincorporated, and therefore under the radar of standard business statistics.

There is a model worth considering in this regard: how the Falun Gong movement in China seemed, from the government's point of view, to emerge from nothing overnight. Something of the same impact, though far more benign, may be happening here. If so, the phenomenon is well worth keeping in mind.

The Tide Also Rises

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/feb2004/tc2004024_4516_tc044.htm

The IT landscape seems to be losing its gloom as a slowly rising employment sun, obscured by fitful offshoring clouds, illuminates what appears to be a modest recovery. This does not mean that the frenzied boom of the late 1990s is back, and expansion hiring is still spotty. Whether offshoring will be offset by more higher- and differently-skilled positions is a moot point, given the difficulty of retraining, but the balance of the news is positive.

The fact that Cisco reports a modest improvement in earnings is taken as another indicator that infrastructure development is picking up speed again:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/04/technology/04cisco.html

As network equipment ages, there is a natural cycle of replacement which should swing into action, and if capacity improvements are made along the way, so much the better.

Cherchez La Femme

http://www.cioinsight.com/article2/0,3959,1458661,00.asp

That women tend to be underrepresented in IT activities generally is a truism -- it certainly can be confirmed by the gender makeup of the student body I have encountered over the years. This is reflected in the male/female distribution of IT management, but this article makes the point that the replacement cadre currently in place [i.e. the upcoming age cohort] is even more heavily skewed to the testerone set. The existence of a thick class ceiling, and the attraction of running your own business instead of being in the corporate millrace are other factors.

The solution advocated here is neither new nor particularly disputable -- encouraging girls in school to consider technology as a career. That tune has been hummed heavily in science and technology for several decades now, without appreciable beneficial result. However desirable a sea change in this situation might be [and I agree it is desirable], it does not seem like this proposed alternative will really generate much traction.

The whole issue of relatively low female participation in science and technology [when in other fields traditionally blocked to female participation like law and medicine, there have been no such problems in women being proportionately represented] is something which I feel has much deeper and complex roots than generally acknowledged. In fact, this may not represent a 'problem' to be 'solved' as much as a condition of existence.

Passage From India

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.02/india.html

A long article, linked with several others, looking at the phenomenon of IT outsourcing to India. In addition to enjoying the competitive advantage of a salary mean about 12% of that prevelant in the USA, India also has the hidden weapon of a large, well-educated, work-oriented middle class which speaks and can work in English.

The bottom line -- get used to it. India and its capabilities are not going away, and efforts at protectionism should prove as counterproductive here as they have in other economic sector. While the USA has moved from the agricultural economy to the industrial economy to the information economy, the hard question is: "what comes after knowledge?".

The answer is creativity, and looked at in this light, besides the rather humble venue of on-site maintenance, it may well be this is the next step the USA must take to make itself competitive. But this will work hardship on a social group which is both used to taking political action and wealthy enough to make its veiws felt, so the transition will not be painless [and, one would argue, probably should not so be].

A shorter article on offshoring generally, presenting the Ricardian argument for competitive advantage is presented here:

http://www.usatoday.com/usatonline/20040204/5895934s.htm

While, as the article notes, the theory has worked well for over 100 years, the question of what comes next could be the disconfirming instance.

Walking The Plank

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20040122.html

In the continuing argument about offshoring, Robert X. Cringley opines that the government and business don't 'get it' -- that by allowing something which has been nationally profitable like IT to be moved away from the USA, a form of 'hollowing out' is at risk, because even in the USA, the available manpower is absolutely low.

Yet the author also gives plenty of examples of the USA and other countries shedding unprofitable industries for profitable ones. The key here is that both capital and labour are required for the sort of re-invention which appears to be the only way out of this dilemma, and the labour reserves required are being squandered, with nothing being done about it.

Well perhaps so -- but a better argument for alternatives is needed, and is not provided here.

He's Up! He's Down!

http://www.cio.com/archive/121503/jobfuture.html

Part of a section on IT futures [including software, CIO, and security], this article looks at two scenarios, one in which USA IT employment remains sizeable, and one in which it gets tossed offshore. In addition to the useful points made in the article, the commentary feedback also provides some stimulating discussion.

I happen to think that Scenation 2 is the more probable outcome, and nobody, including those who instigated it, is going to be happy with this outcome.

Metallic Hands Grasping

http://www.cio.com/archive/121503/et_article.html

The potential for technology to eliminate most jobs has been explored in previous articles in this blog; here is another analysis of the trends which are affecting IT jobs in particular, including offshoring and the rise of autonomous computing [also explored in other articles in this blog]. When 43% of IT budgets are spent on labour, then this suggests that something has to give.

This article also suggest that there is some case for optimism, if technologists shift to more design-oriented specialties, and if the sheer number of potential jobs [1.5 million estimated for computer software engineers, support specialists, computer and network administrators, systems analysts, and database administrators in the next 6 years] in fact comes to pass, there will still be lots of employment opportunity in North America.

One wonders who is whistling past the graveyard here.

That Giant Sucking Sound

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=4059246

Article on offshoring which keys on predictions that U.S. white-collar jobs such as programmers, software engineers and applications designers will be offshored at an ever-increasing [the rate is expected to double]. Multinationals, having experienced backlash about this, are keeping mum.

In fact, the following priceless remark is deeply symptomatic: "Nobody has come up with a way to spin it in a positive way." The explanation for that is simple: there is no way to spin this positively.

Moreover, as this article notes, offshoring is by no means risk-free, even if it will grow by 25%/year:

http://techupdate.zdnet.com/techupdate/stories/main/Top_10_Risks_Offshore_Outsourcing.html

Problems can range from lower cost savings than initially estimated to problems in knowedge transfer. Indeed, only the reduced cost impact of offshoring seems sufficient to balance against these risks.

Of course, none of this prevented the high and mighty, like Cary Fiorina [who does not have to worry about bread on the table today or tomorrow] giving a rather "let them eat cake" remark, and economists [who is laid end to end would never agree on anything] continue to hold that this pain is actually good for us:

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/01/09/MNG6C46T0M1.DTL&type=tech

I think, when I think about it, that I am rather in the economists' court here, but when people who benefit to an almost obscene degree defend a practice which makes many of their contemporaries into dispossessed paupers, I also acknowledge without hesitation that this grates, and reveals the degree to which such speakers are pompous, heartless, and self-centered.

There's Gold Off Them Thar Shores!

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/03/business/03consult.html

The pros and cons of offshoring IT work have been discussed extensively in other articles indexed by this blog. The above article looks as how the phenomenon works, and demonstrates how consulting companies are using offshoring as one of the few cost-cutting recommendations which are available for implementation. As a result, the pressures for offshoring are as likely to come from those who provide organizations advice as it is from within those organizations.

This just makes this phenomenon that more difficult to combat, assuming that opposing it made strategic sense in the first place.

Programmer As Snail Darter

http://whitepapers.comdex.com/data/detail?id=1070988580_381&type=RES&src=mu_ab

Another slant on the IT employment issue, looking at the question "U.S. Programmers and Analysts: Endangered or Just Wounded?". The overall picture is related to historical trends, suggesting that those in the IT industry must use strategic management of their own careers to maximize their opportunities.

Another perspective suggesting the supply of IT jobs is growing can be found here, along with a sidebar indexing a number of related employment articles:

http://www.cioupdate.com/career/article.php/328945

Betting The Farm, With Tractor

http://www.forio.com/outsourcing.htm

Looks at the offshoring phenomenon from the point of competitive advantage, suggesting that when the major portion of production costs comes from design, it makes less sense to outsource. The more custom-tailored a 'product' is, the more difficult it is to offshore.

The real danger, according to this article, is for firms to compete on operational effectiveness [which is what offshoring improves] alone -- this amounts to betting the farm that you are more competent than the competition. The negative effects of offshoring on innovative capacities may, in the long run, lead to the loss of even more jobs.

What To Do?

http://www.techcentralstation.com/120903A.html

If the world hands you a lemon, make lemonaide -- this is the message of this suggested solution to the technical unemployment issue. Two trends: accelerated learning, taking place outside the classrom, and the requirement for personal services, are the keys to the type of work which resists offshoring. Flexibility is a prerequisite to realizing the potential for the new job market.

Another perspective on outshoring is provided by this article, which suggests that there are a number of tacks to take to secure IT jobs in the USA:

http://www.cioupdate.com/career/article.php/3116471

Related to outshoring is the capability of IT worker to work remotely, which essentially makes location irrelevant. It turns out that a number of IT jobs still require "face time", as indicated in this article:

http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/22822.html

Yet another article which suggests that while some IT specialties are being outshored or eliminated altogether, there is plenty of scope for growth if gthe unemployed are sufficiently flexible to take advantage of it:

http://www.ecommercetimes.com/perl/story/32280.html

Systems engineers, business process experts, and security professionals are cited as three examples of employment areas which will continue to be strong, and which resist outshoring by their nature.

A Cure Worse Than The Disease?

http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/dec2003/sb2003122_8887.htm

Article describing an innovative approach to outshoring: hire programmers in the USA and pay them Indian/Russian-level wages. The company which tried this got deluged with applications from out-of-work programmers who were more than willing to take half-a-loaf, and all of the complexities with remote dealing went out the window.

Whether this will work more generally is open to debate, and it would seem to have a depressing effect on the standard of living in the USA [not as depressing as being unemployed, of course]. But one of the tenets of the global economy is global competition, and it may well be that we have here an ebbing tide which lowers all boats.

The Train In The Tunnel

http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/career/article.php/3114871

Article reflecting a consensus among the IT employment area that the worst of the slump is over, and that better times will be coming. A Dice.com survet suggested that demands for hands-on technology professionals, particularly for C++ and Java, are ramping up.

The fly embedded in this ointment: the pool of skilled professionals is so large that it will be some time before newly-minted IT graduates will experience any sort of employment demand.

Greed Is Bad, After All

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20031114-052912-7678r

Article which makes a point so salient I wonder others have missed it -- the savings to be gained by outshoring technical jobs is nothing like that available to companies who would like to avoid the obscene overpayments which top executives get. There is, by exact analogy to technical work, nothing magical about North American managers, and no reason why their skills should not compete on an open global market as well.

Of course the ultimate outcome of this happy prospect is the complete relocation of high-technology industry to the offshore, which will have negative implications for the USA standard of living [Hollywood can do just so much to pick up the slack, after all]. The only thing being, with the immense monetary power such executives can bring to bear on the government, will such rationalization actually be allowed to happen?

You Can't Go There, Either

http://www.thewhir.com/features/euro-skills.cfm

Article pointing out that there was a predicted IT labour shortage in Europe too, before the tech bubble popped so loudly. In addition to reduced domestic demand, the supply of available homegrown talent has been increased in Europe consequent on tightened USA restrictions on technical immigrants. As in the USA, outshoring is also a problem, and the prosepects for a rapid revival of the European employment market are regarded as dim.

Doing Something About It

http://www.computeruser.com/articles/2211,5,16,1,1101,03.html

Article discusing the personal effects of offshoring, suggesting that people harness their anger about this constructively. The case for offshoring is not always as ironclad as it seems: by promoting their own capabilities and backing this up with numbers, IT workers do have a chance of convincing management that their jobs should not be sent overseas.

It may not be a position IT folk find comfortable, but it does beat the alternative.

Gloom And Doom Discussion Room

http://news.com.com/2100-7342_3-5103519.html

Summarizes a Robert Half report to the effect that USA IT starting salaries will fall nearly 2% in 2004. Unemployment for computer professionals is at its highest since data started being collected in 1982. On the other hand [no surprise here] the salaries for IT managers will increase, as will those in 'hot' IT fields.

The problem for educators in the practical IT field is that the 'hot' fields change so rapidly that an extended educational programme cannot cope. If the general prospect is so dismal, students will cease enrolling, programmes will close, and the law of supply and demand will work its inevitable effects.

Another viewpoint on this issue, encapsulating the debate between those claiming that a new technical worker shortage is inevitable and those saying 'outshoring' will permanently reduce the IT workforce requirement can be found here:

http://jobcenter.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/careers/workingnews/110203ccCareersTechmain.1553fc53.html

A pair of opposed opinions on what the problem is and what should be done about it can be found here:

http://www.nwfusion.com/columnists/2003/1103biggs.html

This is obviously becoming a flashpoint as we approach the end of 2003, since articles on the topic are both multiplying and expressing a diversity of viewpoints, as exemplified by this:

http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/news/local/7225976.htm

Down, Down, Down

http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/7298279.htm

Article reporting another industry trade group employment surves suggesting that over 200,000 IT jobs will be cut by the time 2003 ends, with 13% of technical jobs vanishing in the past two years. The only whilstles in the wind is the fact that the llayoff pace is slowing, and that venture capital may start flowing to small companies again, fuelling some growth.

Too Many Chiefs

http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/21300.html

The MCSE certification is certainly the most popular, with holders numbering in the hundreds of thousands. The real question -- are all these people really necessary? This article concludes that there is a glut of MCSEs over all, though those with Server 2003 and security certrifications may well stand out from the crowd.

What Goes, What Stays

http://techupdate.zdnet.com/techupdate/stories/main/not_all_jobs_can_be_moved_offshore.html?tag=zdannounce4

Article which notes that while the trends to offshore outsourcing are solid and will continue to accelerate, there will always be a set of locally-needed skills. In addition to security, product development, professional services, and customer services represent areas of job growth in IT. System administrators, in contrast, are being pushed out by the management capacities of multi-tenant system farms. Computer science is no longer considered "the place to be".

From Russia With Code

http://www.line56.com/articles/default.asp?ArticleID=5141

First of a two-part article on the opportunities and dangers relevant to Russia as a source of IT offshore outsourcing. Russia is not like India, and offers a specific talent pool which may not be replicated anywhere else outside North America and Europe. On the other hand, the chaotic state of business relations in Russia certainly introduces risk elements.

The bottom line: in IT you compete with the whole world.

Bleak Prospects

http://www.cioinsight.com/article2/0,3959,1309523,00.asp

Article suggesting that IT has become commoditized, making for a poor long-term employment picture. According to an ITA survey, some half-million jobs have been lost in the USA since the big boom busted, with little hope of most of them returning. Some draw comparisons with what happened to telephone operators when automated switches were installed.

The changing nature of the IT workforce means that the only skill with real growth potential is the "IT Plumber" -- the tradesman who comes in and repairs an automated system when it breaks down. Anyone who has paid for the services of a plumber in the recent past will appreciate how lucrative such a trade could be.

The continuing economic impact of offshore outsourcing means that USA IT workers will have to retrain or find other occupations -- some 2 million additional jobs can be outsourced in the next few years. The overall picture for software development is a transition from a "master craftsman" model to an "assembly line" model.

Additional references are provided at the end of this article.

How Much Is That Offshore Contract In The Window

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/oct2003/tc20031027_9655_tc119.htm

The issue of offshore outsourcing has been ventilated sufficiently in previous posts -- this one points out that the cost savings are not necessarily all they cracked up to be. While the direct labour costs are in fact much lower offshore, if the quality of product delivered is so low that it requires repairs, then the cost benefits are lowered or eliminated. Firms exist making good money repairing buggy offshore projects.

One would think, at some level of overall cost which would not necessarily equal unity that the second-order effects of offshore offsourcing would also get weighed in the balance -- alas, I suspect, only in some better world than this one.

Bodiless Recovery

http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=15500149

The latest employment data suggests that IT joblessness has stopped increasing, and runs slightly less than the overall national average in the USA. However the good news is not evenly distributed -- database administrators and computer programmers have been especially hard-hit, as have older workers [or workers with degrees which are over 30 years old].

On the other hand, business-technology managers, computer scientists, and software engineers enjoy brighter prospects. Both Microsoft .NET and Linux developers are in demand, as are people with an IT-audit background. On the remaining appendage, recruiters are still getting 100 applications for every single open position, so the boom days are not exactly here again.

Bring Back My Workplace To Me

http://networking.ittoolbox.com/news/dispnews.asp?i=103238

Article discussing overseas outsourcing trends in IT, explaining the rationale behind it. Shows how a specific locality [the Kansas City area] is affected by this development, which is beginning to spawn a backlash. Computer science enrollments are sharply down at local universities, leading to a fear of atrophied technical skills in the USA -- which begs the question: how can the skills be maintained if all the jobs are outside the country?

Makes the suggestion that the "middle class" is beginning to fight back, and instantiates the unsustainability of the developing USA pattern where there are a few rich stockholders at the top, a mass of low-paid service personnel at the bottom, and nothing in between. Yet clearly this is exactly the direction in which North American employment is heading, and any of the proposed cures thus far specified for this problem appears worse than the disease.

Perhaps we all should learn to like flipping burgers and cleaning toilets -- if nothing else, this might help solve the USA's illegal immigrant problem, as people start competing for the 'jobs nobody wants'.

The Edge Of The Source

http://www.forbes.com/2003/10/10/1010grovepinnacor.html

Report of a speech by Andrew Grove suggesting that the trend to outsourcing IT jobs is undermining the USA's technical capacity, with India and China being the beneficiaries. The result of this hollowing out could be unrecoverable, just as was the case with the steel and semiconductor industries.

One estimate has 10% of USA IT jobs moving offshore in 2004 -- but of course, if companies can make the immediate bottom line look good, what does it matter that the nation is irretrievably damaged over the long term? In the absence of public policy, and at a time when the concept of "government for the benefit of the people" has been nearly totally discredited, it is highly unlikely that anything will alter this trend.

Grove also specifies other problems, including a moribund patent system, a shortage of high-speed InterNet connections, S & T R & D funding shortfalls, and failures of the education system as additional negative aspects for the USA's technological position. The fact that most "viewers with alarm" have been proved wrong in the past does not mean that this jeremiad lacks validity, but if it is in fact true, one is inclined to accept that the Titanic has struck the iceberg and it is all over except for the inevitable deck chair rearranging.

Ready, Fire, Aim!

http://www.baselinemag.com/article2/0,3959,1256718,00.asp

Article suggesting that the drive to offshore offsourcing has many hidden downsides. In today's lemming-like drive to cut costs, long-term permanent damage can be done to both national security and a company's competitive position. However, the article also ruefully notes that the lemmings are on the march and have gone over the cliff already.

This extensive, multiple-page article can also be downloaded in a .PDF version.

Computers To The Rescue

http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/wlg/3812

The high technology drain from North America parallels the deskilling drain which went on before it -- the consequence, lost jobs. This article suggests some alterantives ways in which technology can be used to boost employment, and links to some other structural restorces.

My rubric here is always to ask: "What is the easiest thing to do?" because most of the time, that's what in fact gets done. What this author is asking for is a bit more difficult than the trend he opposes, so I am not sanguine about its success. It is, nevertheless, worth thinking about, and I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

How Silicon Was My Valley

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/09/23/BUGJ21SE181.DTL&type=tech

A report on Silicon Valley's employment woes suggests that the boom level will not be recovered until 2010, which on the face of it looks like bad news. The sliver linings in this cloud suggest that time is available to cure infrastructure problems to make the Valley a more productive place.

Since growth in the Valley is expected to lag national [USA] growth, this suggests at least that there will be some jobs somewhere else.

No Precedent For This

http://www.computerworld.com/careertopics/careers/labor/story/0,10801,85055,00.html

The whole issue of IT employment and trends is something which results in a lot of FUD, simply because so many oxen are liable to be gored. This article argues that the employment loss in IT is both exceptional in its severity, and unlikely to be relieved. The degree to which automation and offshore outsourcing are affecting the purely technical aspects of employment makes concentration on management skills as these relate to IT the most rewarding career path to follow.

Given an effective unemployment rate in IT of some 6%, it is rather odd for companies to be making the case that H1-B visas should be more widely available, which in fact they are doing:

http://www.infoworld.com/article/03/09/17/HNh1bhearing_1.html

The Decline And Fall Of The IT Industry

http://www.infoworld.com/article/03/09/19/HNindustry_1.html

The Developer Forum in San Francisco was the latest venue for expressing lament about the fact that the IT job market may be permanently down. A number of policies and trends [such as a continuing decline in technical education in the USA] mean that the trained workforce to staff the jobs is not there, even if the jobs were.

The advantages of outsourcing include tapping into a global pool of talent, although there are real difficulties here as well. It does seem clear that the more "conceptual" an IT element is, the more likely it is to be outcountried. It is easier to manage programmers remotely than to implement helpdesk repairs the same way.

...And They Ain't A-Comin Back

http://www.computerworld.com/managementtopics/outsourcing/story/0,10801,84861,00.html

Article discussing how offshore outsourcing in the IT industry is a trend which can only grow in impact. Discusses the various types of outsourcing as well as the effects of these on jobs within the North American sector. The bottom line: outsourcing is "an irreversible megatrend" in the IT employment sector which has deep and continuing penetration in the industry.

Not Coming Back

http://newsforge.com/article.pl?sid=03/08/27/132243

Somewhat cynical article suggesting that IT outsourcing will continue to grow, and represents something irreversible. The only area of IT which is "safe" is direct support of the hardware infrastructure -- and to the degree to which this can be managed remotely, not even this niche is safe.

There is a high irony in IT workers becoming victims of a competitive environment which they themselves were instrumental in creating.

Return To The Good Times

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2003/nf20030827_6640_db016.htm

Brief article suggesting that there are more solid signs for optimism in terms of an economic recovery, which in turn will result in more innovation. Should this in fact come to pass, of course, it does not mean that those areas of the IT industry which were wrecked in the bubble collapse will suddenly come roaring back. A more likely prospect: a majority of the new jobs will demand familiarity with new technology, not a background in what's here now.

On the other hand, the whole IT infrastructure issue is one which won't go away, and there are limits to how much of this can be parcelled out to India. If an economic upturn creates a need for a more robust and extensive network mesh, we may yet see some recovery in some [but not all] traditional IT specialties.

Gloom Tune

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=569&ncid=738&e=1&u=/nm/20030716/tc_nm/tech_recovery_dc

While others have suggested there is a turn in the tunnel, after which some light can be seen insofar as IT employment is concerned, the latest results of earning statements from major IT companies suggests it was just a wandering firefly. Some strong fundamental indicators suggest that we will not experience any substantial IT upswing before the end of 2003.

We Can't Make a Living at This!

http://www.corante.com/ebusiness/redir/25728.html

Whatever optimism there might be about an upturn in the high-technology market, the fact appears that depressed attitudes are leading to depressing action. CIOs are just not spending, and if they don't spend for long enough, the computer/IT industry could be in serious trouble, especially when the employment ripple effects of this are considered.

After all, if it becomes too hard to make a buck in IT, a large number of people in the industry will find some other way to keep hard drive and program together, such as selling insurance.

How The Money Rolls In

http://mcpmag.com/news/article.asp?editorialsid=585

The cloud of doom about depressed salaries in the IT industry may be about to break, according to this short article. At least as interesting as the article itself are the remarks from those in the trenches, who collectively sound a little more than shell-shocked.